Nassim Taleb spent five books arguing the world is fat-tailed, convex and non-ergodic — and that most of finance measures it wrong. This wing re-derives the mathematics and lets you run it yourself. Structure, never advice.
Maximum confidence arrives on the fatal morning — Laplace's rule of succession, run faithfully on a doomed bird.
The sample mean under fat tails: a million draws in, the average you trust is still wrong — and you can watch it fail to settle.
Jensen's gap computed live — fragile, robust and antifragile as three readings of the same curvature.
The crowd's average is not your average — a coin game where the ensemble grows while the typical player decays, and the Kelly fraction where the typical player grows fastest.
Two structures, one seeded storm, ensemble means matched by construction — the middle dies suddenly, the barbell bleeds slowly and is paid in storms. Only the shape differs.
Hill plot, survival curve and moment diagnostics — running entirely in your browser. Paste your own series; nothing leaves your machine, and a measured tail is a property of the past, not a forecast.
Cirillo & Taleb against Pinker on the decline of war — the record, both sides at their strongest, the referee voices, and no verdict sold.
Thirty years of argument about one number — the 1997 exchange, the 2008 stress test, and what the regulators actually did about the tail.
Three lifetime laws side by side — for the nonperishable, every year survived raises the expectation of more; for the human-shaped curve, age stays a countdown. The maths says exactly when each holds.
One stubborn member decides a unit, units decide units — four percent flips the whole map in four levels of veto. An admitted cartoon with exact arithmetic, and it confesses it has no brake.
Ruin is not a bad outcome but the end of outcomes — repeated exposure compounded to near-certainty, and the survivors' flattering average measured against the graveyard's.
What each exhibit is allowed to claim. Every grade pill on this wing points back to this box. The pills speak two vocabularies: EXACT / APPROXIMATE / ILLUSTRATIVE grade the mathematics running on the page (the estate's grading law, below), while the claim tiers here grade what a statement is allowed to assert — and Contested marks a live dispute wherever it appears. Five claim tiers, in descending order of certainty:
The estate's grading law applies here as everywhere: every toy is graded EXACT / APPROXIMATE / ILLUSTRATIVE, and the wing never teaches false maths to be fun. Where a page simplifies, it confesses.
Independent — unaffiliated with Nassim Nicholas Taleb or his publishers.
His mathematics is re-derived and attributed; his prose stays his.
Structure, not advice — nothing here predicts a market or recommends a position.
Nothing below exists yet. No links, on purpose — the fence applies to each of these before a line of it ships.